Europa League Permutations

Theoretically if Roma win in Rome and Basle see off Sofia then the table will be:

1. Basle 9pts
2. Roma 7pts
3. Fulham 5pts
4. Sofia 1pt

Fulham have to beat Sofia at CC so if Basle beat Roma in Italy, the table will be like this:

1. Basle 12pts - Qualified
2. Fulham 8pts
3. Roma 7pts
4. Sofia 1pt

This means Fulham are likely to need to beat Basle in Switzerland to qualify - but bear in mind that they will already be through and might not be playing their strongest side.
If Basle draw in Rome then the table will look like this:

1. Basle 10pts
2. Roma 8pts
3. Fulham8pts
4. Sofia 1pt

And a win in Switzerland would likely be necessary to qualify along with Roma who will presumably win in Bulgaria.

If Roma beat Basle then the table will look like this:

1. Roma 10pts
2. Basle 9pts
3. Fulham 8pts
4. Sofia 1pt

Which again would mean that Fulham would have to win in Switzerland.
However if Fulham get a draw in Italy, the table will look like this at round four:

1. Basle 9pts
2. Fulham 6 pts
3. Roma 5 pts
4. Sofia 1pt

If Roma beat Basle in Italy then the post round 5 table should look like this:

1. Fulham 9pts
2. Basle 9pts
3. Roma 8pts
4. Sofia 1pt

This means that a draw in Switzerland will be good enough thanks to our head to head records.

If Roma and Basle draw in round 5 the table will look like this:

1. Basle 10pts
2. Fulham 9pts
3. Roma 6pts
4. Sofia 1pt

This means that Fulham will need to get at least a draw to make sure that they qualify, but can still lose and qualify as long as they have better goal difference than Roma. Currently Roma's GD is 0 and Fulham's is +1. It will essentially mean who puts more past Sofia in the final two games.

If Basle win in Italy, then the table will look like this:

1. Basle 12pts - qualified
2. Fulham 9pts - qualified
3. Roma 5pts
4. Sofia 1pt

That looks good. I have assumed that Sofia are going to get tonked in their final three matches, otherwise I would have been here modelling all night.

IN SUMMARY: In most cases Fulham will have to win the final two games to qualify. This is unfortunate as Manchester United come visiting CC in the game after the Swiss adventure and Roy is likely to prioritise the league game. But if Fulham get a point in Rome then it will be a crunch game between Roma and Basle and we favour the Swiss.