Monday, 9 May 2011

Calling the odds - Fulham V Liverpool

I'm rather confused at the betting markets for tonight's match. Liverpool are the red-hot favourites to win, with Fulham as long as 12/5 with Victor Chandler, but that's not really reflective of how Liverpool tend to fare at Craven Cottage. Last year Liverpool were demolished, thanks to two red cards, in what was a pretty poor season for them, but the season before they only snatched a win in injury time courtesy of Yossi Benayoun (although they did hit the bar four times in that match). Even further back Dempsey's first Fulham goal was a vital winner against Liverpool (albeit a second string ahead of the CL final).
Basically, Fulham tend to make Liverpool earn any points they get from the Cottage, not that the betting market reflects that. The recent form of the two teams doesn't suggest such a one-side encounter either. Fulham's home form has been imperious since the turn of the year. They've won eight out of ten matches, drawn another (against Chelsea when they missed a last minute penalty) and only lost the aberration of the Bolton FA Cup match, Scoring 25 in the process and conceding just 5. Meanwhile since the turn of the year Liverpool's away form reads: P: 11 W: 3 D: 2 L: 6 F: 11 A: 13. So in my opinion Fulham are outstanding value at 12/5 to win tonight.

Correct Score: Being bullish I would say 3-1 to Fulham, which is generally available at 25/1. Liverpool HT/ Fulham FT, given only Chelsea and Arsenal have better second half form than Fulham in the league, also has some value at 40/1 with Sportingbet.

First goalscorer: There's been six penalties in the last six games Liverpool have been involved in, three for and three against. So a penalty scorer would be a sensible bet, especially as Fulham have yet to concede a goal from the penalty spot this season. Kuyt, who takes Liverpool's penalties, and has been in good form anyway, is available at a generous 8/1 from William Hill. Danny Murphy - Fulham's regular penalty taker is 20s, also at William Hill. Recently Dempsey has been trying to muscle in on the penalty taking, but Murphy will no doubt flex his captaincy muscles against his former club. Suarez is the type of player that gives the Fulham back line problems though and you can get on him at 7s, again with Hills. For a longer shot - Simon Davies has also started scoring and tends to go on runs of netting; he's generally available at 25/1.

Sod's law: You can also get 5/1 on a player to be sent off with Paddy Power. Given Fulham are going for the Fair Play award and have yet to have had a player sent off this season, it's almost a given.


Bad Andy said...

There's a scene at the end of The Blues Brothers, where the driver of The Good Ole Boys' truck, having been forced to drive into a lake, turns to his passenger Bob and warns: "Don't you say a fucking word."
I can now empathise.

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